Brexit 2 – Will They Never Learn?

Theresa May does not look happy

Greetings from Brexit Land, the country which gave you Brexit 1 and is now pleased to present the sequel – Brexit 2. If you’ve been paying any attention to the mainstream news lately, you may have heard that the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, recently called a General Election and that this resulted in a hung Parliament (a Parliament where no single party has an overall majority). Before the election, Mrs May had a good working majority and two years of her term left to run. She didn’t have to call the election at all, but did so in the expectation that the people would return her to power with a bigger majority, effectively giving her a vote of confidence in the Brexit negotiations. They didn’t. She has singlehandedly managed to derail her party, the country and the Brexit negotiations with scarcely any help from anyone else at all.

As if this wasn’t incredible enough, it’s even more astonishing that she should be repeating exactly the same mistake made by the former British Prime Minister David Cameron a year ago. If you remember, Cameron decided, for reasons best known to himself, to seek an unnecessary referendum on whether the UK should leave the EU, expecting that the people would vote the way he wanted them to (to remain in the EU). They didn’t. They voted to leave, giving rise to the Brexit we all know and love today.

Maybe there is a virus lurking in the fabric of 10 Downing Street (the British Prime Minister’s residence) which causes strange mental health symptoms in successive occupants. However, a more likely explanation is that we are in the early stages of what Kathy McMahon has called a “slow, sucky collapse” and what John Michael Greer has called a “stair step descent”. Let’s look at this through the “slow collapse” lens and see if we can make sense of it.

The main issue which derailed Cameron was immigration. The British public were uneasy about the flood of immigrants into the country, mainly economic migrants from eastern European Union countries and refugees from the wars in the Middle East. We were obliged under the terms of the EU treaty to accept an unlimited number of the former, and there was public unease about the limited controls on the latter and whether a proportion of them might be Islamic extremists. Cameron failed to read the public mood correctly and did not appreciate the strength of those concerns. He resigned immediately after the Brexit vote was announced.

The reason for the large number of economic migrants is because of the differential between the poor economic conditions in their home countries, and the better (although still not great) economic conditions in Britain. This is because economic growth is faltering across the world, but patchily, faster in some places than others. Although economic conditions in Britain may look relatively good to someone who is living in Poland, we still have to borrow money every year to plug the gap between Government spending and income.

The current round of wars in the Middle East, and the rise of ISIS, have their roots in the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the political and economic chaos which followed. The US invasion of Iraq, in turn, had its roots in US domestic peak oil in 1970, the point at which the US stopped being self sufficient in oil production and became increasingly dependent on Middle East oil. After all, if the US had enough domestic oil of its own, why would it waste blood and treasure invading Iraq? And if political and economic conditions in the Middle East were good and everyone had decent jobs, homes and incomes, why would anyone be interested in supporting ISIS?

Fast forward to last week, and Theresa May’s general election fiasco had two principal causes: the fact that, like Cameron before her, she had failed to read the public mood correctly, and the fact that as Home Secretary in 2010 she implemented budget cuts which resulted in the loss of 20,000 police officers. The budget cuts were made as a result of adverse economic conditions and the need for the Government to rein in public borrowing.

Unfortunately, in the run-up to the election there were two major terrorist incidents in Britain: a suicide bombing at a concert in Manchester on 22 May and a van-and-knife attack on London Bridge on 3 June, both inspired by ISIS: see above. This focused the electorate’s attention on the need for sufficient police numbers to provide adequate security, and Theresa May’s mistaken action while Home Secretary in cutting those numbers, with predictable results.

What we are looking at here is a gradual and patchy economic decline in Britain, Europe, the Middle East and the USA which is producing chaotic and unexpected results as the various parts interact with each other. In my last post just after the Brexit referendum, posted on 30 June last year, I said that “…there will be continuing political and economic instability for several years…” My prediction going forward is for more of the same and quite likely another British general election in about a year’s time.

……………………………………………………………………………………………..

The Post Peak Medicine website, book and email account have been offline for the last few weeks due to technical difficulties related to my recent international relocation, and various other existential crises which I won’t bother you with right now. If you have sent me an email recently and I haven’t replied, please accept my apologies, but I haven’t been able to receive any emails for weeks. I hope to have things up and running with a new hosting service in the near future.

Slaynt vie, bea veayn, beeal fliugh as baase ayns Mannin

Advertisements

3 thoughts on “Brexit 2 – Will They Never Learn?

  1. Excellent analysis from you, as always. And you use my favorite word, “chaos.” I’m amazed at the fact that most people can’t understand such a simple word. What I’d like to see is some serious reporting on “Dressing for Chaos.” How one dresses surely indicates one’s level of preparedness. But perhaps I’m guilty of underestimating people. Look at Theresa May in the photo — quite “Ansatz bereit” (“combat ready”), I’d say, in spite of one’s initial impression. The fierce glare to instill fear in the enemy. The blue uniform to signify “authority.” Those things around her neck. (Explosives? Cyanide capsules?) Anyway, it’s good to know that someone is willing to take charge of the situation.

  2. The catch to using “2003” (and George W. Bush) as a marker for Muslim atrocities is that it’s a sort-of half-full-half-empty argument, not quite a logical fallacy but certainly the kind of device used by those who want to promote the idea that “we’re all equal.”

    On the one hand the “2003” statement can mean (1) Islam was a religion of peace (for 1400 years) until Bush ruined everything. On the other hand it can mean (2) the world situation with Islam was more-or-less bearable until Bush disturbed the hornets’ nest. So the original statement can be neither verified or falsified, because the person using the “2003” argument can always switch to the other of the two interpretations — and therefore be always “right.”

    Of course we have to ignore the fact that Muslims murdered perhaps 75 percent of the population of Armenia from 1917 to 1923. And we have to ignore every other act of Muslim brutality against the Christian world in those fourteen long centuries.

    http://westernpath.blogspot.ca/2016/08/2-islam-grim-history.html

    • Unfortunately, Christians (German Lutherans, for example), did a lot of killing in the 20th century, too. I don’t lay the blame with Martin Luther, or with Mohammad, but regard religious affiliation as a proxy for clan, class, and geographic conflict. If you look at Northern Ireland, for example, you CAN slice it as Catholic Christian vs. Protestant Christian, but there were and are other ways to group the opposing forces (class, occupation, location, etc.). Since “Islam” fuses civil and religious authority, originally and in some places today, it is a mistake to focus on the religious aspect of the conflict.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s